A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facility to produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present value after deducting for building costs will be $ 400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintain the small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $ 450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $ 50,000.
If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $ 800,000. If demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000. The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demand is estimated to be .40.
a. Analyze using a tree diagram.
b. Compute the EVPI. How could this information be used?
c. Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P (demand low).