(a) Make an Excel line graph of the following bond yield data. Describe the pattern. Is there a consistent trend?
(b) Use exponential smoothing (MegaStat, MINITAB, or Excel) with α = .20. Use both methods A and B to initialize the forecast (the default in both MegaStat and MINITAB).
(c) Record the statistics of t. (MegaStat uses MSE and MSD; MINITAB uses MSD and MAPE. With Excel you will have to calculate these by creating cell formulas.)
(d) Do the smoothing again with α = .10 and then with α = .30, recording the statistics of t.
(e) Compare the statistics of t for the three values of α.
(f) Make a one-period forecast (i.e., t = 53) using each of the three values. How did affect your forecasts?

  • CreatedAugust 19, 2015
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