# Question

(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.

(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.

(d) Make a similar graph for 19932008 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2009?

(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 19932008 data.

(f) Make a forecast for 2009, using either a fitted trend model or a judgment forecast.

(g) Might it be best to ignore earlier years in this data set?

(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.

(d) Make a similar graph for 19932008 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2009?

(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 19932008 data.

(f) Make a forecast for 2009, using either a fitted trend model or a judgment forecast.

(g) Might it be best to ignore earlier years in this data set?

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