A technical note in the discussion of @RISK indicated that Latin Hypercube sampling is more efficient than Monte Carlo sampling. This problem allows you to see what this means. The file S15_44.xlsx gets you started. There is a single output cell, B5. You can enter any random value in this cell, such as RISKNORMAL(500,100). There are already @RISK statistical formulas in rows 9–12 to calculate summary measures of the output for each of 10 simulations. On the @RISK ribbon, click on the button to the left of the “dice” button to bring up the Simulation Settings dialog box, click on the Sampling tab, and make sure the Sampling Type is Latin Hypercube. Run 10 simulations with at least 1000 iterations each, and then paste the results in rows 9–12 as values in rows 17–20.
Next, get back in Simulations Settings and change the Sampling Type to Monte Carlo, run the 10 simulations again, and paste the results in rows 9–12 as values into rows 23–26. For each row, 17–20 and 23–26, summarize the 10 numbers in that row with AVERAGE and STDEV. What do you find? Why do we say that Latin Hypercube sampling is more efficient?

  • CreatedApril 01, 2015
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