A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90 percent reliable when the person is guilty and 99 percent reliable when the person is innocent. In other words, 10 percent of the guilty are judged innocent by the serum and 1 percent of the innocent are judged guilty. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5 percent are guilty of having committed a crime, and the serum indicates that the suspect is guilty of having committed a crime, what is the probability that the suspect is innocent?
Answer to relevant QuestionsConstruct a tree diagram (like Figure 4.6) for the situation described in Exercise 4.48. Assume that for the first stock (on a particular day) P(R)= .4, P(U)= .2, P( D) =.4 and that for the second stock ( on a particular day) P(R) =.8, P(U) =.1, P(D) =.1 Assuming that these stocks move independently, find ...An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Robert T. Clemen presents an example in which he discusses the 1982 John Hinckley trial. In describing the case, Clemen says: In 1982 John Hinckley was on trial, accused of having ...In the book Foundations of Financial Management ( 7th ed.), Stanley B. Block and Geoffrey A. Hirt discuss a semiconductor firm that is considering two choices: ( 1) expanding the production of semiconductors for sale to end ...An industry representative claims that 50 percent of all satellite dish owners subscribe to at least one premium movie channel. In an attempt to justify this claim, the representative will poll a randomly selected sample of ...
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