# Question

A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job. She estimates that there is an 80 percent chance that she will get the job if she receives a strong recommendation, a 40 percent chance if she receives a moderately good recommendation, and a 10 percent chance if she receives a weak recommendation. She further estimates that the probabilities that the recommendation will be strong, moderate, and weak are .7, .2, and .1, respectively.

(a) How certain is she that she will receive the new job offer?

(b) Given that she does receive the offer, how likely should she feel that she received a strong recommendation? a moderate recommendation? a weak recommendation?

(c) Given that she does not receive the job offer, how likely should she feel that she received a strong recommendation? a moderate recommendation? a weak recommendation?

(a) How certain is she that she will receive the new job offer?

(b) Given that she does receive the offer, how likely should she feel that she received a strong recommendation? a moderate recommendation? a weak recommendation?

(c) Given that she does not receive the job offer, how likely should she feel that she received a strong recommendation? a moderate recommendation? a weak recommendation?

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