Ahmed Jamil, a robust 50-year-old real estate consultant living in the suburbs of Alexandria, Egypt, has been diagnosed by a specialist at the National Institute for Liver Diseases (Menofya) in Shebeen el Koum as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Ahmed’s liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.
Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Ahmed’s age and condition who does not have surgery. However, based on his own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of living 1 year, a 20% chance of surviving for 2 years, a 10% chance for 5 years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. He places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.
The transplant operations, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years.

Discussion Questions
1. Do you think that Ahmed should select the transplant operation?
2. What other factors might be considered?