Although the expected value is a straightforward and appealing summary of an alternative, it does have its

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Although the expected value is a straightforward and appealing summary of an alternative, it does have its limitations. We interpret the EMV as the average amount that would be obtained by “playing the game” a large number of times. But is this a worth-while number to know for unique or one-off decisions? For example, the “game” for Hugh Liedtke amounts to suing Texaco — not a game that Pennzoil will play many times! Discuss the pros and cons of using EMV as a decision selection criterion, especially for one-off decisions.
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Making Hard Decisions with decision tools

ISBN: 978-0538797573

3rd edition

Authors: Robert Clemen, Terence Reilly

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