As project manager, you estimate that there’s a 50% probability that your current research program will be completed within the next month. You concede that it is 30% likely the program will take two months, and 20% likely it will take a full three months. You also have reason to believe that if the program is completed within one month, there is a 65% likelihood that you can have a signifcant new product on the market by next Christmas. If the research program takes two months, the chances of meeting the Christmas deadline for new product introduction drops to 40%; and if the research program takes three months, there is only a 10% probability of new product introduction by Christmas. How likely is it that you will NOT have the new product on the market by Christmas?
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