As treasurer of Tucson Corp. (a U.S. exporter to New Zealand), you must decide how to hedge

Question:

As treasurer of Tucson Corp. (a U.S. exporter to New Zealand), you must decide how to hedge (if at all) future receivables of 250,000 New Zealand dollars 90 days from now. Put options are available for a premium of $.03 per unit and an exercise price of $.49 per New Zealand dollar. The forecasted spot rate of the NZ$ in 90 days follows:
Future Spot Rate Probability
$.44 30%
.40 50
.38 20
Given that you hedge your position with options, create a probability for U.S. dollars to be received in 90 days.

Distribution
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