As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries. (a) Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of .6 and then with one of .9, to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. (b) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6. (c) Use the trend-projection method to forecast demand in years 1 through 6. (d) With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods isbest’?