Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the WorldSeries (WS) next year. Call this
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Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the WorldSeries (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the following probabilities: P(Win WS | Win Pennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WS | Win Pennant) P(WinPennant) = P(Win WS and Win Pennant). (To play in the WorldSeries, the team must first win the pennant.)
a. Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you adjust your assessments to make p = q ? Why or why not?
b. If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite major league baseball team.
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ISBN: 978-0538797573
3rd edition
Authors: Robert Clemen, Terence Reilly
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