Assume a company runs a plant for which the value one year from now is either $1,000 if market growth is positive or $250 if market growth is negative. The probability of positive market growth is 60%, and the probability is 40% for negative market growth. At any time, the company can choose to close the plant and collect the scrap value of $285 if scrapped today or $300 if scrapped in one year. The cost of capital for the plant is 10% and the risk-free rate is 5%. Estimate the value of the plant using the standard NPV, decision tree analysis (DTA), and real-option valuation (ROV) valuation models. Explain the differences in results.
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