Assume that you manage the interest rate risk position for your bank. Your bank currently has a positive cumulative GAP for all time intervals through one year. You expect that interest rates will fall sharply during the year and want to reduce your bank’s risk position. The current yield curve is inverted with long- term rates below short- term rates that FSB loses in year two if rates either rise or fall sharply from the most likely scenario. Explain why in terms of when embedded options are expected to be exercised and what happens to spreads.
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