Question: At the beginning of each year an investment newsletter predicts
At the beginning of each year, an investment newsletter predicts whether or not the stock market will rise over the following year. Historical evidence reveals that there is a 60% chance of the market rising, in any given year. The newsletter has predicted a rise for 70% of the years when the market actually rose, and has predicted a rise for 30% of the years when the market actually fell. Find the probability that the newsletter's prediction for next year will be correct.
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