Best Homes is one the largest builders of new residential homes in U.S. with 20,040 new homes built in 2015. The case presents monthly sales data from 2011 to 2015. This data is representative of home builders since we estimated the sales of Best Homes based on a 4% market share of the total sales of new homes in the U.S. from the U.S. Census web site. Thus the trend and seasonality are in line with U.S. home sales in total.
The case explains the problem facing Best Homes in terms of annual planning and the S&OP process. Forecasting is put in the context of how the forecast will be used. Also, sales projections are being gathered from the field, and the case asks students to reconcile those with the forecasts based on historical data.
1. What forecasting methods should the company consider? Please justify.
2. Use the classical decomposition method to forecast average demand for 2016 by month. What is your forecast of monthly average demand for 2016?
3. Best Homes is also collecting sales projections from each of its regions for 2016? What role should these additional sales projections play, along with the forecast from question 2 in determining the final national forecast?