Betting on the results of National Football League games is a popular North American activity. In some states and provinces, it is legal to do so provided that wagers are made through a government-authorized betting organization. In the province of Ontario, Pro-Line serves that function. Bettors can choose any team on which to wager, and Pro-Line sets the odds, which determine the winning payoffs. It is also possible to bet that in any game a tie will be the result. (A tie is defined as a game in which the winning margin is 3 or fewer points. A win occurs when the winning margin is greater than 3.) To assist bettors, Pro-Line lists the favorite for each game and predicts the point spread between the two teams. To judge how well Pro-Line predicts outcomes, the Creative Statistics Company tracked the results of a recent season. It recorded whether a team was favored by (1) 3 or fewer points, (2) 3.5 to 7 points, (3) 7.5 to 11 points, or (4) 11.5 or more points. It also recorded whether the favored team (1) won, (2) lost, or (3) tied. These data are recorded in columns 1 (Pro-Line’s predictions) and 2 (game results). Can we conclude that Pro-Line’s forecasts are useful for bettors?
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