Cassie Coughlin had less than a week to finish her presentation to the CEO of NW Pulp and Paper. Cassie had inherited a project started by her predecessor as head of the new-product development section of the company, and by the nature of the business, deal-ing with wood products, projects tended to have long lifetimes. Her predecessor had successfully predicted the consequences of a series of events that, in fact, had occurred:
1. The western United States, where NW Pulp and Paper had its operations, was running out of water, caused by a combination of population growth and increased irrigation. The situation had currently been made worse by several years of drought. This meant many farming operations were becoming unprofitable.
2. The amount of timber harvesting from national forests continued to be limited.
3. At least some of the land that had been irrigated would become less productive due to alkaline deposits caused by taking water from rivers.
Based on these three factors, Cassie’s predecessor had convinced the company to purchase a 2,000-acre farm that had four types of soil commonly found in the West and also had senior water rights. Water rights in the West are given by the state, and senior rights are those that will continue to be able to get irrigation water after those with junior rights are cut off. His idea had been to plant three types of genetically modified poplar trees (these are generally fast-growing trees) on the four types of soil and assess growth rates. His contention was it might be economically feasible for the company to purchase more farms that were becoming less productive and to become self-sufficient in its supply of raw material for making paper.
The project had been started 15 years ago, and since her predecessor had since retired, Cassie was now in charge of the project. The primary focus of the 15-year review was tree growth. Growth in this case did not refer to height but wood volume. Volume is assessed by measuring the girth of the tree three feet above the ground. She had just received data from the foresters who had been managing the experiment. They had taken a random sample of measurements from each of the tree types. The data are shown in the file NW Pulp and Paper. Cassie knew the CEO would at least be interested in whether one type of tree was generally superior and whether there was some unique combination of soil type and tree type that stood out.