# Question

Consider the American Express closing price data in the file S12_16.xlsx. Focus only on the closing prices.

a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting? Why?

b. Use Holt’s exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using no holdout period and requesting 20 days of future forecasts. Use the default smoothing constants of 0.1.

c. Repeat part b, optimizing the smoothing constants. Does it make much of an improvement?

d. Repeat parts a and b, this time using a holdout period of 50 days.

e. Write a short report to summarize your results.

a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting? Why?

b. Use Holt’s exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using no holdout period and requesting 20 days of future forecasts. Use the default smoothing constants of 0.1.

c. Repeat part b, optimizing the smoothing constants. Does it make much of an improvement?

d. Repeat parts a and b, this time using a holdout period of 50 days.

e. Write a short report to summarize your results.

## Answer to relevant Questions

Consider the poverty level data in the file S02_44.xlsx.a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting? Why?b. Use ...A version of simple exponential smoothing can be used to predict the outcome of sporting events. To illustrate, consider pro football. Assume for simplicity that all games are played on a neutral field. Before each day of ...The file S12_57.xlsx consists of the monthly retail sales levels of U.S. gasoline service stations.a. Is there a seasonal pattern in these data? If so, how do you explain this seasonal pattern? Also, if necessary, ...Winters’ method assumes a multiplicative seasonality but an additive trend. For example, a trend of 5 means that the level will increase by five units per period. Suppose that there is actually a multiplicative trend. Then ...Let Yt be the sales during month t (in thousands of dollars) for a photography studio, and let Pt be the price charged for portraits during month t. The data are in the file S11_45.xlsx. Use regression to fit the following ...Post your question

0