Dalgliesh the detective fancies himself a shrewd judge of human
Dalgliesh the detective fancies himself a shrewd judge of human nature. In careful tests it has been discovered that he is right 80 percent of the time when he says that a randomly chosen suspect is lying. Dalgliesh says that Jones is lying. The polygraph expert, who is right 100 percent of the time, says that 40 percent of the subjects interviewed by Dalgliesh are telling the truth. What is the probability that Jones is lying?

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