Each night different meteorologists give us the probability that it will rain the next day. To judge how well these people predict, we will score each of them as follows: If a meteorologist says that it will rain with probability p, then he or she will receive a score of
1 − (1 − p)2 if it does rain
1 − p2 if it does not rain
We will then keep track of scores over a certain time span and conclude that the meteorologist with the highest average score is the best predictor of weather. Suppose now that a given meteorologist is aware of our scoring mechanism and wants to maximize his or her expected score. If this person truly believes that it will rain tomorrow with probability p∗, what value of p should he or she assert so as to maximize the expected score?

  • CreatedOctober 22, 2015
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