Each time an unbiased coin is flipped three times, the probability of getting 0, 1, 2, and 3 heads is …›, …œ, …œ, and …›, respectively. Therefore, with eight groups of three flips each, on the average, one group will yield no heads, three groups will yield one head, three groups will yield two heads, and one group will yield three heads.
a. Use random numbers in the order in which they are given in column C of Figure 12.4 and then in cells C5:C13 of Figure 12.5 to simulate the flips specified in part a and record the information indicated in part a.
FIGURE 12.4: A spreadsheet model for a computer simulation of performing corrective maintenance on the Heavy Duty Co. motors.

FIGURE 2.15: The screenshot for the Wyndor problem that shows the drop-down menu generated by clicking on the Decision button on the Risk Solver Platform ribbon after choosing Units Produced (C12:D12) as the changing variable cells.

b. Formulate a spreadsheet model for performing a computer simulation of three flips of the coin and recording the number of heads. Perform one replication of this simulation.
c. Use this spreadsheet to generate a data table with eight replications of the simulation. Compare this frequency distribution of the number of heads with the probability distribution of the number of heads with three flips?
d. Formulate a spreadsheet model for performing a computer simulation of the daily sales. Perform 300 replications and obtain the average of the sales over the 300 simulated days.

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D Н K Heavy Duty Company Corrective Maintenance Simulation Distribution of Random Time since Last Cumulative Cumulative Time between Breakdowns Breakdown Number Breakdown Day Cost Cost 1 $11,000 $11,000 Number 0.7142 $11,000 Cumulative of Days $22,000 Probability 0.4546 10 $11,000 $33,000 0.25 4 0.3142 15 4 $11,000 0.5 0.25 0.1722 4 19 $44,000 $11,000 0.75 0.25 0.0932 4 23 $55,000 10 $11,000 $11,000 $66,000 0.3645 28 Breakdown Cost $11,000 11 $77,000 0.1636 4 32 12 0.7572 $11,000 38 $8,000 13 $11,000 0.3067 43 $99,000 14 10 $11,000 $110,000 0.9520 6. 49 $11,000 30 26 0.8548 131 $286,000 $297,000 31 $11,000 27 0.7464 136 32 28 0.9781 142 $11,000 $11,000 $308,000 Average Cost per Day $2,157 33 29 0.6584 147 $319,000 34 $11,000 30 0.8829 153 $330,000 6) ----------|------- D Random Time Since Last Cumulative Cumulative 4 Number Breakdown Day Cost Cost |=RANDO =VLOOKUP(RandomNumber,SJ$7:$K$9,2) =TimeSinceLastBreakdown =RANDO =VLOOKUP(RandomNumber,SJS7:$K$9,2) =E5+TimeSinceLastBreakdown =BreakdownCost=G5+Cost =RANDO =VLOOKUP(RandomNumber,SJ$7:$K$9,2) =E6+TimeSinceLastBreakdown =BreakdownCost =BreakdownCost =Cost 6. =G6+Cost Range Name Cells AverageCostPerDay Breakdown Average Cost per Day =CumulativeCost/CumulativeDay J34 33 B5:B34 34 BreakdownCost J11 Cost CumulativeCost CumulativeDay F5:F34 G5:G34 E5:E34 RandomNumber C5:C34 TimeSinceLastBreakdown D5:D34