# Question

Each year, the Website espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds displays the probabilities of professional basketball teams achieving certain goals. For example, at the end of the 2009–2010 regular season, the site listed the following probabilities (expressed as percentages) of each of the 16 playoff teams winning the NBA Championship. (Note that the site uses the term odds to represent in this context a probability.)

The Web site explains that a “computer plays out the remainder of the season 5000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes.”

a. Note the sum of the probabilities for the 16 teams is 99.9. Why do you think the sum differs from 100?

b. Interpret Orlando’s probability of 29.5%, which was calculated from the 5000 simulations. Is it based on the relative frequency or the subjective interpretation of probability?

The Web site explains that a “computer plays out the remainder of the season 5000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes.”

a. Note the sum of the probabilities for the 16 teams is 99.9. Why do you think the sum differs from 100?

b. Interpret Orlando’s probability of 29.5%, which was calculated from the 5000 simulations. Is it based on the relative frequency or the subjective interpretation of probability?

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