Flip a coin 100 times. Stop each time you have done 10 flips (that is, stop after 10 flips, 20 flips, 30 flips, and so on), and compute the proportion of heads using all of the flips up to that point. Plot that proportion versus the number of flips. Comment on how the plot relates to the relative-frequency interpretation of probability.
Answer to relevant QuestionsPick an event that will result in the same outcome for everyone, such as whether it will rain next Saturday. Ask 10 people to assess the probability of that event, and note the variability in their responses. (Don’t let ...You are competing in a swimming race that has eight contestants starting at the same time, one per lane. Two of your friends are in the race as well. The eight lanes are assigned to the eight swimmers at random, but you hope ...As a promotion, a cereal brand is offering a prize in each box, and there are four possible prizes. You would like to collect all four prizes, but you only plan to buy six boxes of the cereal before the promotion ends. ...Explain how an insurance salesperson might try to use each of the following concepts to sell you insurance: a. Anchoring b. Pseudocertainty c. Availability People were asked to give a personal probability assessment of the possible occurrence of each of the following two events (Kahneman, 2011, p. 159): • “A massive flood somewhere in North America next year, in which more ...
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