For the data of Exercise 18.13, fit an exponentially smoothed curve with smoothing constant α = 0.4; with smoothing constant α = 0.7. Which constant provides more “smoothing” and why? Which curve is quicker to “catch up” whenever the original series changes direction and why?
Answer to relevant QuestionsFor the data of Exercise 18.15, determine the centered moving average for N = 2; for N = 4. In exercise Given the degree-day data of Exercise 18.11, (a) determine the monthly seasonal indexes for January through December, then (b) use these indexes to deseasonalize the original time series. In exercise The U.S. trade deficit with Canada (billions of dollars) from 2000 through 2007 is reported as shown in the table. Using exponential smoothing and the smoothing constant α = 0.7, what deficit would have been forecast for ...Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.7 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion. In exercise Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing average hourly earnings of U.S. production workers. What is the trend estimate for 2013?
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