Genenco is developing a new drug that will slow the aging process. In order to succeed, two breakthroughs are needed: one to increase the potency of the drug, and the second to eliminate toxic side effects. Research to improve the drug’s potency is expected to require an upfront investment of $10 million and take 2 years; the drug has a 5% chance of success. Reducing the drug’s toxicity will require a $30 million upfront investment, take 4 years, and has a 20% chance of success. If both efforts are successful, Genenco can sell the patent for the drug to a major drug company for $2 billion. All risk is idiosyncratic, and the risk-free rate is 6%.
a. What is the NPV of launching both research efforts simultaneously?
b. What is the optimal order to stage the investments?
c. What is the NPV with the optimal staging?