Guess at the probability that if you ask five people when their birthdays are, you will find someone born in the same month as you. For simplicity, assume that the probability that a randomly selected person will have the same birth month you have is 1/12. Now use the material from Chapter 14 to make a table listing the numbers from 1 to 5, and then fill in the probabilities that you will first encounter someone with your birth month by asking that many people. Determine the accumulated probability that you will have found someone with your birth month by the time you ask the fifth person. How well calibrated was your initial guess?
Answer to relevant QuestionsPeople were asked to give a personal probability assessment of the possible occurrence of each of the following two events (Kahneman, 2011, p. 159): • “A massive flood somewhere in North America next year, in which more ...Research by Slovic and colleagues (1982) found that people judged that accidents and diseases cause about the same number of deaths in the United States, whereas, in truth, diseases cause about 16 times as many deaths as ...Although it’s not quite true, suppose the probability of having a male child (M) is equal to the probability of having a female child (F). A couple has four children. a. Are they more likely to have FFFF or to have MFFM? ...We learned in this chapter that one idea re-searchers have tested was that when forced to make a decision, people choose the alternative that yields the highest expected value. a. If that were the case, explain which of the ...Find out the sensitivity and specificity of a common medical test. Calculate the probability of a true positive for someone who tests positive with the test, assuming the rate in the population is 1 per 100; then calculate ...
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