Guess at the probability that if you ask five people
Guess at the probability that if you ask five people when their birthdays are, you will find someone born in the same month as you. For simplicity, assume that the probability that a randomly selected person will have the same birth month you have is 1/12. Now use the material from Chapter 14 to make a table listing the numbers from 1 to 5, and then fill in the probabilities that you will first encounter someone with your birth month by asking that many people. Determine the accumulated probability that you will have found someone with your birth month by the time you ask the fifth person. How well calibrated was your initial guess?
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