Harper Company sells toys, so its sales are heavily concentrated in the last quarter of the year because of holiday buying. Harper reported total sales for the past three years as follows (all numbers are in thousands):

To make advance arrangements with suppliers, you have been asked to forecast Harper's fourth-quarter sales for the year 2014.
Instructions:
1. Ignore the quarterly sales data given by Harper. Forecast fourth-quarter 2014 sales using just the annual sales data. Describe your assumptions.
2. Repeat (1), but this time use the quarterly sales data.
3. Repeat (2), but also incorporate the fact that first-quarter sales in 2014 were $14,000.
4. Comment on the usefulness of quarterly data.

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Quarter Ending March 31 June 30 September 30 December 31 Total 2011 2012 2013 6,0 6,000 8,000 10,000 $6,000 8,000 10,000 $12,000 16,000 20,000 40,000 10,000 50,000