Identify, Inc. guarantees that it can correctly identify individuals from three pieces of information—date of birth, place of birth, and profession. In reality, whether Identify can keep that guarantee is dependent on the reliability of the information provided. Calculate the probability of correctly identifying an individual if:
a. The three pieces of information each have a 75% chance of being correct.
b. The date of birth is 99% correct, the profession is 50% correct, and the place of birth is 70% correct.
c. The date of birth is found in two publications, each with a 60% chance of being correct, the profession is from an association membership with an 80% accuracy, and the place of birth is self-reported on one site with a 50% chance of veracity and confirmed by a tabloid with a 40% reliability.
d. Which of the scenarios above has the highest reliability?

  • CreatedApril 10, 2014
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