If a time series is such that sales are consistently increasing from one year to the next, will exponential smoothing tend to produce forecasts that are (a) over or (b) under the sales that are actually realized for the forecast period? Why?
Answer to relevant QuestionsThe quarterly seasonal indexes for a firm’s electricity consumption are 115, 92, 81, and 112 for quarters I–IV. It has been forecast that electricity consumption will be 850,000 kilowatt-hours during 2014. Forecast ...Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.8 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion. In exercise For the shipment data listed in Exercise 18.45, construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation and make a forecast for period 19. In exercise The Producer Price Index values for plumbing fixtures and brass fittings from 2002 through 2007 are shown here. Convert the index numbers so that the base period will be 2002 instead of 1982. The following data show U.S. retail sales of canoes from 1991 through 2008, with data in thousands of boats. a. Construct a graph of the time series. Does the overall trend appear to be upward or downward? b. Construct a ...
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