# Question

In 2009, US Airways Flight 1549 made a successful emergency landing in the Hudson River, after striking birds shortly after takeoff. Are bird strikes an increasing threat to planes?

(a) Make an Excel graph of the data on bird strikes.

(b) Discuss the underlying causes that might explain the trend.

(c) Use Excel, MegaStat, or MINITAB to t three trends (linear, quadratic, and exponential) to the time series.

(d) Which trend model do you think is best to make forecasts for the next 3 years? Why?

(e) Use each of the three fitted trend equations to make numerical forecasts for 2008, 2009, and 2010. How much difference does the choice of model make? Which forecasts do you trust the most, and why?

(f) If you have access to the web, check your forecasts. How accurate were they?

(a) Make an Excel graph of the data on bird strikes.

(b) Discuss the underlying causes that might explain the trend.

(c) Use Excel, MegaStat, or MINITAB to t three trends (linear, quadratic, and exponential) to the time series.

(d) Which trend model do you think is best to make forecasts for the next 3 years? Why?

(e) Use each of the three fitted trend equations to make numerical forecasts for 2008, 2009, and 2010. How much difference does the choice of model make? Which forecasts do you trust the most, and why?

(f) If you have access to the web, check your forecasts. How accurate were they?

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