In Chapter 6, we discussed how an understanding of probability allows one to properly interpret the results of medical screening tests. The use of Bayes’s Law requires a set of prior probabilities, which are based on historical records. Suppose that a physician wanted to estimate the probability that a woman under 35 years of age would give birth to a Down syndrome baby. She randomly sampled 200 births and discovered only one such case. Use the Wilson estimator to produce a 95% confidence interval estimate of the proportion of women under 35 who will have a Down syndrome baby.

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