# Question

In early 2010, leading U.S. stock markets tumbled more than 2.5% as U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since August 2009 (BBC News, July 16, 2010). Given fresh economic data, an economist believes there is a 35% chance that consumer confidence will fall below 62 and only a 25% chance that it will rise above 65. The economist defines the confidence score as 1 if consumer confidence is below 62, 2 if it is between 62 and 65, and 3 if it is above 65.

a. According to the economist, what is the probability that the confidence score is 2?

b. According to the economist, what is the probability that the confidence score is not 1?

a. According to the economist, what is the probability that the confidence score is 2?

b. According to the economist, what is the probability that the confidence score is not 1?

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