# Question

Ivy University is planning to construct a new building for its engineering school. This project will require completing all of the activities in the above table. For most of these activities, a set of predecessor activities must be completed before the activity begins. For example, the foundation cannot be laid until the building is designed and the site prepared.

Obtaining funding likely will take approximately six months (with a standard deviation of one month). Assume that this time has a normal distribution. The architect has estimated that the time required to design the building could be anywhere between 6 and 10 months. Assume that this time has a uniform distribution. The general contractor has provided three estimates for each of the construction tasks—an optimistic scenario (minimum time required if the weather is good and all goes well), a most likely scenario, and a pessimistic scenario (maximum time required if there are weather and other problems). These estimates are provided in the table that follows. Assume that each of these construction times has a triangular distribution. Finally, the landscaper has guaranteed that his work will be completed in five months.

Use ASPE to perform 1,000 trials of a simulation for this project. Use the results to answer the following questions.

(a) What is the mean project completion time?

(b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 36 months or less?

(c) Generate a sensitivity chart. Based on this chart, which activities have the largest impact on the project completion time?

Obtaining funding likely will take approximately six months (with a standard deviation of one month). Assume that this time has a normal distribution. The architect has estimated that the time required to design the building could be anywhere between 6 and 10 months. Assume that this time has a uniform distribution. The general contractor has provided three estimates for each of the construction tasks—an optimistic scenario (minimum time required if the weather is good and all goes well), a most likely scenario, and a pessimistic scenario (maximum time required if there are weather and other problems). These estimates are provided in the table that follows. Assume that each of these construction times has a triangular distribution. Finally, the landscaper has guaranteed that his work will be completed in five months.

Use ASPE to perform 1,000 trials of a simulation for this project. Use the results to answer the following questions.

(a) What is the mean project completion time?

(b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 36 months or less?

(c) Generate a sensitivity chart. Based on this chart, which activities have the largest impact on the project completion time?

## Answer to relevant Questions

The employees of General Manufacturing Corp. receive health insurance through a group plan issued by Wellnet. During the past year, 40 percent of the employees did not file any health insurance claims, 30 percent filed only ...Assume that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.5 if it is raining today, and assume that the probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.9 if it is clear today. Also assume that these probabilities do not ...Consider the inventory example introduced in Sec. 29.1, but with the following change in the ordering policy. If the number of cameras on hand at the end of each week is 0 or 1, two additional cameras will be ordered. ...Consider the following gambler’s ruin problem. A gambler bets $1 on each play of a game. Each time, he has a probability p of winning and probability q = 1 p of losing the dollar bet. He will continue to play until he ...Consider the Markov chain that has the following (one-step) transition matrix. (a) Determine the classes of this Markov chain and, for each class, determine whether it is recurrent or transient. (b) For each of the classes ...Post your question

0