Question: Politicians often form their positions on various policies through polling
Politicians often form their positions on various policies through polling. Suppose the U.S. Congress is considering passage of a tax increase to pay down the national debt. National polls suggest the general population is equally split on the matter. A congresswoman wants to poll her constituency on this controversial tax increase. To get a good sense as to how the citizens of her very populous district feel (well over 1 million registered voters), she decides to poll 8250 individuals within the district. Of those surveyed, 4205 indicated they are in favor of the tax increase. Given that politicians are generally leery of voting for tax increases, what level of signiﬁcance would you recommend the congresswoman use in conducting this hypothesis test? Do the results of the survey represent statistically signiﬁcant evidence a majority of the district favor the tax increase? What would you recommend to the congresswoman?
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