forecast

Project Description:

part i task on - forecasting

the following historical data regarding market demand for a certain piece of industrial equipment has been provided by the sales department.
month: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
actual number of units sold: 41 43 42 45 44 40 39 42 43 44 40 38

use the preceding data to answer the following questions: in excel spread sheet

hint: for questions 9 through 12, you need to keep in mind that the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 derived by the forecasting models is only a point estimate (this concept was discussed in week one relative to the estimates for the mean of a population). while a point estimate is a precise value, it is not necessarily an accurate value since the various measures of forecasting accuracy (i.e., mad, mse and mape) tell us there is some potential degree of error associated with using the forecasting model to predict salary values. in order to answer questions 9 through 12 you will need to create an interval estimate (this concept was also discussed during week one relative to the mean) for the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13. to calculate the interval estimate projected demand for the test equipment for month 13, simply subtract the measure of forecasting error value from the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 to define the lower limit of the interval estimate and add this value to the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 to define the upper limit for the interval estimate.
1.what is the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 based upon using a 3-month moving average forecast model?
2.what is the mean absolute deviation (mad) for the 3-month moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 12?
3.what is the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 based upon using a 3-month weighted moving average forecast model for which the weighting factor for actual demand one month ago is 3, the weighting factor for actual demand two months ago is 2, and the weighting factor for actual demand three months ago is 1?
4.what is the mean squared error (mse) for the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 12?
5.what is the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 based upon using an exponential smoothing forecast model for which alpha = 0.25?
6.what is the mean absolute percent error (mape) for the exponential smoothing forecast for time periods 1 through 12?
7.what is the projected demand for the test equipment for month 13 based upon using a regression forecast model for which the desired confidence level is 95%?
8.what is the bias for the regression forecasting model for time periods 1 through 12?
9.based upon using the 3-month moving average model and mean squared error (mse) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
10.based upon using the 3-month weighted moving average model and mean squared error (mse) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
11.based upon using the exponential smoothing model and mean squared error (mse) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
12.based upon using the regression forecasting model and mean squared error (mse) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
13.which of the four forecasting models provides the highest degree of forecast accuracy (i.e., least degree of forecasting error)?

part ii decision-making situation
discuss an example of a current decision-making situation, in either your professional or personal life, for which you believe it would potentially be beneficial to apply the quantitative analysis technique(s) being examined during the current week, or any of the preceding weeks of the course. you shall be expected to select a situation that involves a decision-making process that is both complex and involves important outcomes. your posting shall be expected to address all of the following content elements: (in word)
1. describe the decision-making situation in detail, including describing the complexity of the decision(s) being made; importance of the decision(s) being made; manner in which the decision(s) are currently being made; and perceived shortcomings or limitations associated with the manner in which the decision(s) are currently being made.
2. describe in detail how you envision being able to apply the proposed quantitative analysis technique(s) to the described situation, including clearly and explicitly identifying the specific analysis technique that you are proposing to apply to the decision-making situation you have described; and clearly discussing in detail why you believe this analysis technique is appropriate for the given situation.
3. discuss in detail the manner in which you envision applying the selected analysis technique to the given situation. provide supporting details, such as what data will you need?; where will you obtain the necessary data?; and what other individuals will be involved and what will be their roles?
4.describe in detail how you envision applying the proposed quantitative analysis technique(s) would potentially improve decision-making relative to the described situation (i.e., what shortcomings in the current decision-making process would be eliminated by implementing the proposed analysis technique).
5. describe in detail any potential impediments to applying the proposed quantitative analysis technique(s) to the described situation that you might foresee, and how you envision potentially being able to overcome them.
please structure your posting to provide a separate paragraph for each of the preceding five content elements. additionally, please structure your posting such that you address the five content elements in the specific order in which they appear above. a posting of approximately one page in length (single spaced, using a 12-point arial font) would be considered appropriate for your original posting.
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