forecasting future sales using moving average, exponential smoothing, and simple linear regression

Project Description:

for question 1, i just need to know which forecasting method is the best and which is the worst and why.

question 2: bruce is a street vendor selling t-shirts in new york city. his sales in past ten weeks are listed as below.
weeks sales
1 33
2 31
3 31
4 37
5 40
6 33
7 50
8 45
9 55
10 60

a. bruce wants to prepare for future sales. please make forecast, based on historical data, for sales in week 11 and 12, using the following methods: moving average (3), moving average (4), moving average (5), exponential smoothing (0.1), exponential smoothing (0.4), exponential smoothing (0.8). plot the demand and forecasts in scatter plots. compare the mean absolution deviation (mad) and bias among these methods.
b. please make forecast using the simple linear regression. what is the model? is the model valid (residual analysis)? what is the significance of the regression model (r2, p-value of the slope)?
c. compare the smoothing methods with the regression. which method would you recommend? why?
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