Pumpkin Pies Galore is trying to forecast sales of pies for the month of December. Demand for pies in September, October, and November has been 230, 304, and 415, respectively. Edith, the company’s owner, uses a three-period weighted moving average to forecast sales. Based on her experience, she chooses to weight September as 0.1, October as 0.3, and November as 0.6.
(a) What would Edith’s forecast for December be?
(b) What would her forecast be using the naïve method?
(c) If actual sales for December turned out to be 420 pies, which method was better (use MAD)?