Reconsider Prob. 22.4-2. For each of the 10 activities, here are the three estimates that led to the estimates of the mean and variance of the duration of the activity (rounded to the nearest integer) given in the table for Prob. 22.4-2.
(Note how the great uncertainty in the duration of these research activities causes each pessimistic estimate to be several times larger than either the optimistic estimate or the most likely estimate.)
Now use the Excel template in your OR Courseware (as depicted in Fig. 22.8) to help you carry out the instructions for Prob. 22.4-2. In particular, enter the three estimates for each activity, and the template immediately will display the estimates of the means and variances of the activity durations. After indicating each path of interest, the template also will display the approximate probability that the path will be completed within 22 months.

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