# Question

Reconsider Prob. 27.7-7. For each of the forecasting methods specified in parts (b), (c), and (d) (with smoothing constants α = 0.5 and β = 0.5 as needed), use the corresponding procedure in the forecasting area of your IOR Tutorial to obtain the requested forecasts. Then use the accompanying graph that plots both the sales data and forecasts to answer the following questions for these forecasting methods.

(a) Based on your examination of the graphs for the five forecasting methods, which method do you feel is doing the best job of forecasting with the given data? Why?

(b) Management now has been informed that an error was made in calculating the sales for April, but a corrected sales figure has not yet been obtained. Therefore, for each of the five forecasting methods, management wants to know which of the original monthly forecasts would change now because of changing the sales figure for April. Answer this question by dragging vertically the blue dot that corresponds to April sales and observing which of the red dots (corresponding to monthly forecasts) move.

(c) Repeat part (b) if the sales for April change from 150 to 125.

(d) Repeat part (b) if the sales for April change from 150 to 175.

(a) Based on your examination of the graphs for the five forecasting methods, which method do you feel is doing the best job of forecasting with the given data? Why?

(b) Management now has been informed that an error was made in calculating the sales for April, but a corrected sales figure has not yet been obtained. Therefore, for each of the five forecasting methods, management wants to know which of the original monthly forecasts would change now because of changing the sales figure for April. Answer this question by dragging vertically the blue dot that corresponds to April sales and observing which of the red dots (corresponding to monthly forecasts) move.

(c) Repeat part (b) if the sales for April change from 150 to 125.

(d) Repeat part (b) if the sales for April change from 150 to 175.

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