Refer to Exercise 43 Suppose the first unit is defective
Refer to Exercise 43. Suppose the first unit is defective. Use Bayes’ theorem to determine the probability that the machine is in Status A1.
In Exercise 43
When a metal stamping machine is working properly (call it Status A1) only 2% of the units it produces are defective. When it slips out of adjustment (call it Status A2) the defective rate jumps to 20% and the machine has to be shut down and adjusted. Each morning you do a visual inspection of the machine before beginning production and judge its condition based on your inspection. Today, based on your visual inspection, you judge that it’s 95% likely that the machine is fine (Status A1) and only 5% likely that it’s out of adjustment (Status A2). You now turn on the machine and produce the first unit.
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