Refer to the situation in Exercise 86. Suppose you choose someone randomly and discover that the person is a supporter of expanded tax credits. Use Bayes’ theorem to revise the probability that the person you have chosen is a Democrat.
In Exercise 86
As a writer for DailyObserver.com, you are at a political gathering. Seventy percent of those in attendance are Republicans; the remaining 30% are Democrats. According to best estimates, 90% of all Republicans favor increasing tax credits for companies developing new green technologies, while only 20% of Democrats favor such credits. You plan to choose someone ran-
domly from the crowd to interview.