# Question

Researchers have developed statistical models based on financial ratios that predict whether a company will go bankrupt over the next 12 months. In a test of one such model, the model correctly predicted the bankruptcy of 85% of firms that did in fact fail, and it correctly predicted nonbankruptcy for 74% of firms that did not fail. Suppose that we expect 8% of the firms in a particular city to fail over the next year. Suppose that the model predicts bankruptcy for a firm that you own. What is the probability that your firm will fail within the next 12 months?

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