Using the TGT Quarterly Sales (Target Corp.) data: a. Create a line chart of sales. Do you
Question:
Using the TGT Quarterly Sales (Target Corp.) data:
a. Create a line chart of sales. Do you see a trend? Do you see any seasonality? If so, what is the frequency?
b. Using the procedures detailed in the chapter, decompose the time series into the trend, seasonality, and irregular components.
c. Which of the time series methodologies discussed in the chapter would likely be the most appropriate for forecasting Target’s sales?
Data from Target Corp.
Target Corporation Quarterly Revenue and Net Income | ||||
Report Date | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
4/30/2006 | 2006 | 1 | 12,863 | 554 |
7/31/2006 | 2006 | 2 | 13,347 | 609 |
10/31/2006 | 2006 | 3 | 13,570 | 506 |
1/31/2007 | 2006 | 4 | 19,710 | 1,119 |
4/30/2007 | 2007 | 1 | 14,041 | 651 |
7/31/2007 | 2007 | 2 | 14,620 | 686 |
10/31/2007 | 2007 | 3 | 14,835 | 483 |
1/31/2008 | 2007 | 4 | 19,871 | 1,028 |
4/30/2008 | 2008 | 1 | 14,802 | 602 |
7/31/2008 | 2008 | 2 | 15,472 | 634 |
10/31/2008 | 2008 | 3 | 15,114 | 369 |
1/31/2009 | 2008 | 4 | 19,560 | 609 |
4/30/2009 | 2009 | 1 | 14,833 | 522 |
7/31/2009 | 2009 | 2 | 15,067 | 594 |
10/31/2009 | 2009 | 3 | 15,276 | 436 |
1/31/2010 | 2009 | 4 | 20,181 | 936 |
4/30/2010 | 2010 | 1 | 15,593 | 671 |
7/31/2010 | 2010 | 2 | 15,532 | 679 |
10/31/2010 | 2010 | 3 | 15,605 | 535 |
1/31/2011 | 2010 | 4 | 20,661 | 1,035 |
4/30/2011 | 2011 | 1 | 15,935 | 689 |
7/31/2011 | 2011 | 2 | 16,240 | 704 |
10/31/2011 | 2011 | 3 | 16,402 | 555 |
1/31/2012 | 2011 | 4 | 21,288 | 981 |
4/30/2012 | 2012 | 1 | 16,867 | 697 |
7/31/2012 | 2012 | 2 | 16,779 | 704 |
10/31/2012 | 2012 | 3 | 16,929 | 637 |
1/31/2013 | 2012 | 4 | 22,726 | 961 |
4/30/2013 | 2013 | 1 | 16,706 | 498 |
7/31/2013 | 2013 | 2 | 17,117 | 611 |
10/31/2013 | 2013 | 3 | 17,258 | 341 |
1/31/2014 | 2013 | 4 | 21,515 | 520 |
4/30/2014 | 2014 | 1 | 17,050 | 418 |
7/31/2014 | 2014 | 2 | 17,406 | 234 |
10/31/2014 | 2014 | 3 | 17,732 | 352 |
1/31/2015 | 2014 | 4 | 21,751 | 960 |
4/30/2015 | 2015 | 1 | 17,119 | 651 |
7/31/2015 | 2015 | 2 | 17,427 | 773 |
10/31/2015 | 2015 | 3 | 17,613 | 476 |
1/31/2016 | 2015 | 4 | 21,626 | 1,421 |
4/30/2016 | 2016 | 1 | 16,196 | 614 |
7/31/2016 | 2016 | 2 | 16,169 | 625 |
10/31/2016 | 2016 | 3 | 16,441 | 608 |
1/31/2017 | 2016 | 4 | 20,690 | 821 |
4/30/2017 | 2017 | 1 | 16,017 | 677 |
7/31/2017 | 2017 | 2 | 16,429 | 671 |
10/31/2017 | 2017 | 3 | 16,667 | 478 |
1/31/2018 | 2017 | 4 | 22,766 | 1102 |
4/30/2018 | 2018 | 1 | 16,781 | 717 |
7/31/2018 | 2018 | 2 | 17,776 | 799 |
10/31/2018 | 2018 | 3 | 17,821 | 616 |
1/31/2019 | 2018 | 4 | 22,977 | 798 |
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