Refer to the previous exercise for a description of the problem and data set. Create a classification

Question:

Refer to the previous exercise for a description of the problem and data set. Create a classification tree model for predicting whether the student will be able to graduate within four years (Grad). Assign 0 as the success class as we are more interested in identifying students who are at the risk of not being able to graduate within four years. Select the best-pruned tree for scoring and display the full-grown, best-pruned, and minimum error trees.

a. How many leaf nodes are in the best-pruned tree and minimum error tree? What are the rules that can be derived from the best-pruned tree?

b. What are the accuracy rate, sensitivity, specificity, and precision of the best-pruned tree on the test data?

c. Generate the cumulative lift chart. Does the lift curve lie above the baseline? What does this mean?

d. Generate the ROC curve. What is the area under the ROC curve (or AUC value)?

e. Score the three university students in the Graduate_ Score worksheet using the best-pruned tree. Will these three students be able to graduate within four years according to your model?

Data from Exercises 19

Dereck Anderson is an institutional researcher at a major university. The university has set a goal to increase the number of students who graduate within four years by 20% in five years. Dereck is asked by his boss to create a model that would flag any student who has a high likelihood of not being able to graduate within four years. He has compiled a data set of 2,000 previous students of the university that contains the following variables: sex (M/F), whether the student is Caucasian (White), high school GPA (HS GPA), SAT score (SAT), College GPA (GPA), whether the student’s parents are college educated (College Parent), and whether the student graduated within four years (Grad). A portion of the Graduate_Data worksheet is shown in the accompanying table. Build a default classification tree to predict whether the student will be able to graduate within four years (Grad). Display the classification tree.