Vacation destinations often run on a seasonal basis, depending on the primary activities in that location. Amanda Wang is the owner of a travel agency in Cincinnati, Ohio. She has built a database of the number of vacation packages (Vacation) that she has sold over the last twelve years. The following table contains a portion of quarterly data on the number of vacation packages sold.

a. Estimate the linear regression models using seasonal dummy variables with and without the trend term. 

b. Determine the preferred model and use it to forecast the quarterly number of vacation packages sold in the first two quarters of 2020.

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Year 2008 2008 I 2019 Quarter 1 2 ⠀ 4 Vacation 500 147 ⠀ 923