You are selling a car brand that has 2 factories. The factories output is equal. Lately, 2.5%

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You are selling a car brand that has 2 factories.
The factories’ output is equal. Lately, 2.5% of the cars from Factory A have had problems with their brakes, whereas only 0.5% of the cars from Factory B have had such problems. The manufacturer never reveals which factory has produced which cars, and you now have a big new shipment of cars from one of these factories, but you don’t know which. You test 150 of these cars, and find brake problems in only one of them.

(a) What is the prior probability that the shipment is from Factory B?

(b) What is the posterior probability that the shipment is from Factory B?

(c) What is the probability p that there is a problem with the brakes of the next car?

(d) What is the probability that there is a problem with the brakes of 50 or more of the next 3000 cars?

(e) What error could you have committed in the previous calculation?

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