A pharmaceutical company produces a sinus medicine. Monthly sales (in thousands of doses) for the past three years are shown in the table on the next page.

a. Develop a regression model that allows for trend and seasonal components. Obtain the Excel output for this model.

b. Calculate a two-period moving-average forecast.

c. Compare the mean absolute deviations for these approaches. 

d. Use one of these models to forecast sales for each month of year 3.

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8,018 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 6,788 8,020 1,848 410 9,384 6,916 5,698 6,940 9,136 7,420 3,350 1,998 13,358 8,232 8,218 10,248 9,628 7,826 3,528 2,126 2,070 3,762 4,754 11,010 14,040 8,646 8,634 10,782 586 2,260 2,232 1,972 3,572 4,506 10,474