MTV’s Teen Mom has been very controversial. But it has become a tool of public health. A study released by the National Bureau of Economic Research declares that MTV’s “Teen Mom franchise—which also includes the original Teen Mom and 16 and Pregnant—had a measurable effect on reducing teen pregnancy rates.

The study shows that a program on MTV can drive teen behavior in positive ways. The study does explain a baffling statistic, said Phillip Levine, a Wellesley College economist, who co-wrote the report with University of Maryland economist Melissa Kearney. Since 1991, teen pregnancy rates nationwide had been declining by about 2.5 percent per year. But around 2009, the drop suddenly grew more dramatic:
about 7.5 percent per year.

“You just don’t see numbers like that,” said Levine, who has long researched the economics of reproductive health. The usual-suspect explanations—new types of contraception, new forms of sex ed—didn’t seem to fit. A poor economy was a likely factor. But he and Kearney also stumbled across a press release from the National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancy, crediting 16 and Pregnant.

So they ran the numbers, analyzing Nielsen ratings and related tweets and searches. They cross-referenced teen birth data and did some regression-analysis jujitsu. And they concluded that—while the economy played a role—the show itself caused a 5.7 percent reduction in teen pregnancy rates.

Some have questioned, with good reason, whether correlation really is causation. Still, it’s hard to underestimate the power of the Teen Mom reach. Tuesday’s premiere was the number one show on all of television for viewers between 12 and 34. Which makes it worth asking: What makes the show stick? 

It could be that breathless tabloid coverage of booty shorts. But it also could be the trappings of reality TV itself. Levine, who hadn’t watched Teen Mom before he started the study, said he expected heart-to-hearts between girls and their boyfriends, philosophical discussions about contraception. Instead, he said, “A lot of the show is about conflict”—between a girl and her boyfriend, a girl and her ex, a girl and her parents, and a girl and herself.

Questions

1. What did regression analysis show about the impact of Teen Mom on teen pregnancy?

2. What, if anything, did regression tell us about the reasons for the decline in teen pregnancies?