Cognitive Heuristics Alpine Roofing Company, an audit client of Marques, CPA, manufactures two products:

tar shingles and aluminum gutters. In examining Alpine's Reserve for Warranty Guarantees as of December 31, 1999—that is, the estimated liability for warranty repairs and allowances resulting from 1999 sales—Marques reviews internal quality control and engineering reports and learns the following:

• Alpine processes approximately 75 sales orders per business day for tar shingles and 25 orders for aluminum gutters.

• Warranty repairs and allowances are claimed on about 20 percent of the recorded sales orders for shingles and on 10 percent for gutters, both of which are of concern to management.

Because sales were unusually high in October and more than 25 percent warranty claims for either product could prove damaging to Alpine's reputation, management asks Marques which product, shingles or gutters, is more likely to have more than 25 percent warranty claims resulting from October sales. Marques concludes that tar shingles are more likely to have more than 25 percent claims because shingle sales outperformed gutter sales 3 to 1 in October, just as in the daily estimates.

Required:

1. Which one of the cognitive heuristics—representativeness, availability, or anchoring—

may have caused bias in Marques' response? Explain.

2. Is Marques correct? Why, or why not?